The 154th Open is set to tee off before most alarms even think about ringing, and we’ve got a first-round bet that’s tailor-made for the early birds, the night owls, and anyone else who wants to start Thursday with a little extra adrenaline. Birkdale is set up to play firm and fast, so even a ball-striking machine like Scottie Scheffler won’t be attacking every flag. Let’s be honest, Scheffler hasn’t exactly been lighting it up lately. He’s never played a competitive round at Birkdale, and just last week he packed his bags early and missed the cut at the Scottish Open.History tells us Scheffler is no rocket out of the gate, and he averages north of 69.5 strokes in opening rounds this season. With the books dangling Over 68.5 Strokes at +115, we’re not just interested; we’re setting our alarm clocks with the boo-birds.

Implied Probability: 46.51%

Sports Tree BMS Score: 6.74

Sports Tree Implied Probability 67.4%

Edge: 18.19%